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Episode 156 – Willing to Assist

In today’s episode Jordan and Bobby prove their willingness to assist you and all other listeners to overcome the sinister mind virus that is still destroying minds all over the world.

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Referenced in the Podcast

7 Comments

  1. I play the radio
    I play the radio December 5, 2023

    “It used to be CSL, now it’s KSL”

    “Well, I don’t know if they own it, but they certainly have nothing to do with the homeless shelter.”

  2. I play the radio
    I play the radio December 5, 2023

    What the Church does not own in Salt Lake is all the chapels they’ve sold to other churches, businesses, homeless shelters, and government entities since the early 2000s.
    And, were there any Stake farms in Salt Lake?

  3. Kenny
    Kenny December 10, 2023

    I downloaded the New Zealand record level data and played around with the numbers.
    I am not a statistician, nor have any actuarial experience. Just a programmer.
    Steve talks a lot about time-series cohort data, which means nothing to me. I just played around with the data to see what was interesting to me.

    At a high-level:
    Total Individuals: 2215729
    Total Individuals who died: 37315
    Total Doses recorded: 4193438
    Total Doses implied: 7040130
    Average recorded per Person: 1.892577115703229
    Average implied per Person: 3.177342536023133

    Steve’s data was taken from a particular program in NZ. So there are some people who received some doses outside the program and some inside, but they did keep track for each dose what the person said was their total doses at the time. There are quite a few holes in the data. Ex. if a person had 6 doses, and only does 1, 3, and 5 were within the program, this would show as 3 doses “recorded”, and 5 doses “implied”. (With the 6 being outside the program, we have no record of it to know that it happened).

  4. Kenny
    Kenny December 10, 2023

    Part 2 – how many people got how many doses:
    Dose # 0 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose # 1 – Records 966994 People stopped at: 132589
    Dose # 2 – Records 1034807 People stopped at: 543418
    Dose # 3 – Records 1053284 People stopped at: 715356
    Dose # 4 – Records 762241 People stopped at: 454068
    Dose # 5 – Records 369371 People stopped at: 363637
    Dose # 6 – Records 6633 People stopped at: 6574
    Dose # 7 – Records 76 People stopped at: 58
    Dose # 8 – Records 20 People stopped at: 19
    Dose # 9 – Records 1 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #10 – Records 1 People stopped at: 1
    Dose #11 – Records 1 People stopped at: 1
    Dose #12 – Records 3 People stopped at: 3
    Dose #13 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #14 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #15 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #16 – Records 1 People stopped at: 1
    Dose #17 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #18 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #19 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #20 – Records 1 People stopped at: 1
    Dose #21 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #22 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #23 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #24 – Records 1 People stopped at: 1
    Dose #25 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #26 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #27 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #28 – Records 1 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #29 – Records 1 People stopped at: 1
    Dose #30 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #31 – Records 0 People stopped at: 0
    Dose #32 – Records 1 People stopped at: 1

    Yes, there was 1 person in NZ who got 32 shots and another who got 29. Yikes!

  5. Kenny
    Kenny December 10, 2023

    Part 3 – How many people died after getting a dose:
    Death Count after 0 days after last dose: 7
    Death Count after 1 days after last dose: 46
    Death Count after 2 days after last dose: 40
    Death Count after 3 days after last dose: 55
    Death Count after 4 days after last dose: 74
    Death Count after 5 days after last dose: 59
    Death Count after 6 days after last dose: 79
    Death Count after 7 days after last dose: 70
    Death Count after 8 days after last dose: 77
    Death Count after 9 days after last dose: 74
    Death Count after 10 days after last dose: 80
    Death Count after 11 days after last dose: 89
    Death Count after 12 days after last dose: 98
    Death Count after 13 days after last dose: 82
    Death Count after 14 days after last dose: 91
    Death Count after 15 days after last dose: 86
    Death Count after 16 days after last dose: 100
    Death Count after 17 days after last dose: 83
    Death Count after 18 days after last dose: 89
    Death Count after 19 days after last dose: 96
    Death Count after 20 days after last dose: 98
    Death Count after 21 days after last dose: 106
    Death Count after 22 days after last dose: 120
    Death Count after 23 days after last dose: 88
    Death Count after 24 days after last dose: 95
    Death Count after 25 days after last dose: 95
    Death Count after 26 days after last dose: 96
    Death Count after 27 days after last dose: 111
    Death Count after 28 days after last dose: 79
    Death Count after 29 days after last dose: 95
    Death Count after 30 days after last dose: 104
    Death Count after 31 days after last dose: 83
    Death Count after 32 days after last dose: 117
    Death Count after 33 days after last dose: 94
    Death Count after 34 days after last dose: 108
    Death Count after 35 days after last dose: 97
    Death Count after 36 days after last dose: 114
    Death Count after 37 days after last dose: 84
    Death Count after 38 days after last dose: 105
    Death Count after 39 days after last dose: 114
    Death Count after 40 days after last dose: 96
    Death Count after 41 days after last dose: 103
    Death Count after 42 days after last dose: 104
    Death Count after 43 days after last dose: 102
    Death Count after 44 days after last dose: 118
    Death Count after 45 days after last dose: 100
    Death Count after 46 days after last dose: 107
    Death Count after 47 days after last dose: 89
    Death Count after 48 days after last dose: 104
    Death Count after 49 days after last dose: 107
    Death Count after 50 days after last dose: 113
    Death Count after 51 days after last dose: 100
    Death Count after 52 days after last dose: 104
    Death Count after 53 days after last dose: 109
    Death Count after 54 days after last dose: 110
    Death Count after 55 days after last dose: 116
    Death Count after 56 days after last dose: 118
    Death Count after 57 days after last dose: 110
    Death Count after 58 days after last dose: 104
    Death Count after 59 days after last dose: 111
    Death Count after 60 days after last dose: 105
    Death Count after 61 days after last dose: 109
    Death Count after 62 days after last dose: 106
    Death Count after 63 days after last dose: 90
    Death Count after 64 days after last dose: 122
    Death Count after 65 days after last dose: 132
    Death Count after 66 days after last dose: 128
    Death Count after 67 days after last dose: 109
    Death Count after 68 days after last dose: 128
    Death Count after 69 days after last dose: 104
    Death Count after 70 days after last dose: 124
    Death Count after 71 days after last dose: 107
    Death Count after 72 days after last dose: 100
    Death Count after 73 days after last dose: 124
    Death Count after 74 days after last dose: 102
    Death Count after 75 days after last dose: 107
    Death Count after 76 days after last dose: 108
    Death Count after 77 days after last dose: 114
    Death Count after 78 days after last dose: 116
    Death Count after 79 days after last dose: 104
    Death Count after 80 days after last dose: 120
    Death Count after 81 days after last dose: 117
    Death Count after 82 days after last dose: 107
    Death Count after 83 days after last dose: 99
    Death Count after 84 days after last dose: 124
    Death Count after 85 days after last dose: 127
    Death Count after 86 days after last dose: 103
    Death Count after 87 days after last dose: 119
    Death Count after 88 days after last dose: 123
    Death Count after 89 days after last dose: 117

    This is interesting to me. The data does not show any uptick of death right after getting a shot. In fact it shows a negative correlation until about 2 weeks, where the data normalizes to about 80-120 deaths per day.

  6. Kenny
    Kenny December 10, 2023

    Part 4 – Okay so now let’s break it down to deaths by day by dose number.
    Death Count after 0 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d: 2 3d: 2 4d: 0 5+d: 1
    Death Count after 1 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d: 9 3d:13 4d:11 5+d: 7
    Death Count after 2 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d: 8 3d:12 4d:10 5+d: 7
    Death Count after 3 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d: 8 3d: 9 4d:15 5+d:16
    Death Count after 4 days after last dose: 1d: 9 2d:16 3d:16 4d:19 5+d:14
    Death Count after 5 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d:10 3d:10 4d:15 5+d:17
    Death Count after 6 days after last dose: 1d: 8 2d:12 3d:27 4d:21 5+d:11
    Death Count after 7 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d: 8 3d:16 4d:26 5+d:13
    Death Count after 8 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:12 3d:26 4d:24 5+d:10
    Death Count after 9 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d:12 3d:17 4d:27 5+d:11
    Death Count after 10 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d:13 3d:22 4d:23 5+d:15
    Death Count after 11 days after last dose: 1d:10 2d:11 3d:19 4d:30 5+d:19
    Death Count after 12 days after last dose: 1d: 9 2d:14 3d:28 4d:31 5+d:16
    Death Count after 13 days after last dose: 1d: 8 2d:13 3d:15 4d:28 5+d:18
    Death Count after 14 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d: 8 3d:28 4d:35 5+d:14
    Death Count after 15 days after last dose: 1d:16 2d: 4 3d:25 4d:28 5+d:13
    Death Count after 16 days after last dose: 1d:10 2d:10 3d:25 4d:34 5+d:21
    Death Count after 17 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d:17 3d:14 4d:33 5+d:13
    Death Count after 18 days after last dose: 1d:10 2d:16 3d:22 4d:25 5+d:16
    Death Count after 19 days after last dose: 1d:11 2d: 9 3d:19 4d:36 5+d:21
    Death Count after 20 days after last dose: 1d:10 2d:13 3d:24 4d:34 5+d:17
    Death Count after 21 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d:15 3d:25 4d:36 5+d:24
    Death Count after 22 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:15 3d:37 4d:37 5+d:26
    Death Count after 23 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:12 3d:21 4d:31 5+d:21
    Death Count after 24 days after last dose: 1d: 8 2d:13 3d:23 4d:38 5+d:13
    Death Count after 25 days after last dose: 1d: 8 2d:11 3d:17 4d:38 5+d:21
    Death Count after 26 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d:10 3d:23 4d:29 5+d:28
    Death Count after 27 days after last dose: 1d:11 2d:14 3d:25 4d:40 5+d:21
    Death Count after 28 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d:12 3d:24 4d:25 5+d:12
    Death Count after 29 days after last dose: 1d: 9 2d:16 3d:17 4d:33 5+d:20
    Death Count after 30 days after last dose: 1d: 9 2d:14 3d:26 4d:32 5+d:23
    Death Count after 31 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d:12 3d:18 4d:24 5+d:23
    Death Count after 32 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d:13 3d:33 4d:48 5+d:17
    Death Count after 33 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d:10 3d:30 4d:33 5+d:19
    Death Count after 34 days after last dose: 1d:13 2d:14 3d:34 4d:32 5+d:15
    Death Count after 35 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:11 3d:18 4d:40 5+d:24
    Death Count after 36 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:18 3d:33 4d:34 5+d:24
    Death Count after 37 days after last dose: 1d: 6 2d:17 3d:18 4d:29 5+d:14
    Death Count after 38 days after last dose: 1d: 8 2d: 5 3d:35 4d:37 5+d:20
    Death Count after 39 days after last dose: 1d: 9 2d:13 3d:34 4d:31 5+d:27
    Death Count after 40 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d: 8 3d:26 4d:38 5+d:21
    Death Count after 41 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:20 3d:28 4d:26 5+d:24
    Death Count after 42 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:15 3d:24 4d:41 5+d:19
    Death Count after 43 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:11 3d:29 4d:40 5+d:18
    Death Count after 44 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:20 3d:28 4d:36 5+d:30
    Death Count after 45 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:13 3d:31 4d:36 5+d:17
    Death Count after 46 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d:16 3d:28 4d:32 5+d:24
    Death Count after 47 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d:11 3d:22 4d:33 5+d:16
    Death Count after 48 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:11 3d:33 4d:32 5+d:23
    Death Count after 49 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:12 3d:28 4d:40 5+d:23
    Death Count after 50 days after last dose: 1d:10 2d:19 3d:33 4d:29 5+d:22
    Death Count after 51 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:18 3d:23 4d:32 5+d:22
    Death Count after 52 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:17 3d:25 4d:31 5+d:27
    Death Count after 53 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:10 3d:25 4d:44 5+d:27
    Death Count after 54 days after last dose: 1d: 9 2d:18 3d:31 4d:31 5+d:21
    Death Count after 55 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:15 3d:29 4d:41 5+d:27
    Death Count after 56 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:21 3d:31 4d:39 5+d:22
    Death Count after 57 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d:11 3d:31 4d:36 5+d:25
    Death Count after 58 days after last dose: 1d: 1 2d:19 3d:32 4d:36 5+d:16
    Death Count after 59 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:17 3d:28 4d:35 5+d:26
    Death Count after 60 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:12 3d:41 4d:24 5+d:24
    Death Count after 61 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:13 3d:33 4d:38 5+d:20
    Death Count after 62 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:13 3d:27 4d:35 5+d:27
    Death Count after 63 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:10 3d:20 4d:32 5+d:23
    Death Count after 64 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:18 3d:34 4d:38 5+d:29
    Death Count after 65 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:13 3d:41 4d:55 5+d:19
    Death Count after 66 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:22 3d:34 4d:42 5+d:27
    Death Count after 67 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:15 3d:32 4d:35 5+d:23
    Death Count after 68 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:22 3d:36 4d:41 5+d:25
    Death Count after 69 days after last dose: 1d: 1 2d:19 3d:32 4d:36 5+d:16
    Death Count after 70 days after last dose: 1d: 1 2d:13 3d:40 4d:46 5+d:24
    Death Count after 71 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:11 3d:39 4d:36 5+d:18
    Death Count after 72 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d:20 3d:29 4d:31 5+d:18
    Death Count after 73 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:22 3d:29 4d:37 5+d:32
    Death Count after 74 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d: 9 3d:16 4d:43 5+d:32
    Death Count after 75 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:16 3d:35 4d:34 5+d:18
    Death Count after 76 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:22 3d:23 4d:36 5+d:24
    Death Count after 77 days after last dose: 1d: 4 2d:12 3d:30 4d:43 5+d:25
    Death Count after 78 days after last dose: 1d: 5 2d:16 3d:31 4d:42 5+d:22
    Death Count after 79 days after last dose: 1d: 7 2d:15 3d:26 4d:36 5+d:20
    Death Count after 80 days after last dose: 1d: 1 2d:13 3d:36 4d:39 5+d:31
    Death Count after 81 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d:12 3d:33 4d:48 5+d:22
    Death Count after 82 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d:17 3d:27 4d:41 5+d:20
    Death Count after 83 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d:13 3d:23 4d:38 5+d:23
    Death Count after 84 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:15 3d:37 4d:42 5+d:27
    Death Count after 85 days after last dose: 1d: 1 2d:21 3d:37 4d:39 5+d:29
    Death Count after 86 days after last dose: 1d: 1 2d:19 3d:28 4d:30 5+d:25
    Death Count after 87 days after last dose: 1d: 8 2d:16 3d:39 4d:37 5+d:19
    Death Count after 88 days after last dose: 1d: 3 2d:16 3d:29 4d:41 5+d:34
    Death Count after 89 days after last dose: 1d: 2 2d:19 3d:36 4d:44 5+d:16

    Okay, this shows a very different picture. It shows that they more doses you get the greater the death count.

  7. Kenny
    Kenny December 10, 2023

    Part 6 – Now I normalized the data based on the number of records.
    Death chance within 90 days after taking dose #1: 0.0508%
    Death chance within 90 days after taking dose #2: 0.1204%
    Death chance within 90 days after taking dose #3: 0.2277%
    Death chance within 90 days after taking dose #4: 0.3961%
    Death chance within 90 days after taking dose #5+: 0.4903%

    I had not thought to see such compounding effects of additional doses.

    For comparison, from: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NZL/new-zealand/death-rate
    You can see that from 2002-2022 that NZ had a death rate of 7 +/- 0.2 per thousand people per year. That equals 0.7 percent per year, which would make for 0.172% chance of a random person dying within any 90-day period.
    The data shows less than that for the first shot and it gets worse after that, transitioning between the second and third dose. What does it mean? I don’t know. There may be other factors involved where people were still isolating and generally staying at home when they were getting the first shots.

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